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EUR/USD is trading above 1.1850, marginally higher on the day. The dollar is retreating with US yields, in an extended response to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls. Upbeat eurozone PMIs underpin the euro. Liquidity is thin due to a bank holiday in the US.
The latest Federal Reserve meeting in mid-June saw the Fed announce an unexpected hawkish shift. The Fed caught the market off-guard by announcing that it now expects two interest rate hikes in 2023, when before it didn't plan any until 2024. The move boosted the US Dollar which went on to hit a 3-month high.
EUR/USD trades within a bearish trend, below its steeply descending trendline dating back to early June.
The pair is attempting to cross above the descending trendline and the receding bearish picture on the MACD is keeping the buyer's hopeful. This can indicate that a bullish move is coming. Watch for a bullish crossover on the MACD, which could be forming.
However, it made a move over 1.1885 the July high and 1.19 round number to raise the prospect of a meaningful move higher and to bring 1.1975 back into the picture.
On the flip side, a move through 1.1850 could see the seller look to test 1.18 July low and round number ahead of a deeper sell off to 1.17 the year to date low.
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