07.06.201906:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD for June 7, 2019

EUR/USD

The results of yesterday's meeting of the ECB turned out to be quite expected: the TLTRO-III program will be launched in September with a credit rate of about zero, the first rate increase will be no earlier than the middle of next year, the economy's prospects are reduced - from 2020 to 1.6 %, inflation forecast for the next year is 1.6%. This may mean that the ECB hints that the rate will not actually be raised in the coming year either. But Mario Draghi obviously gave the speech's tone, once again stating "all the means available to= the regulator" in the "case of what" ... The euro made the move of the previous day, but this time it did not reach the goal of 1.1324.

In fact, the ECB announced a new program of quantitative easing, there is no reason for the euro to increase. Perhaps, preventive measures are introduced under the future head of the ECB in order to make it difficult for him to change anything.

The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart has become pronounced, there is a good technical reason for the reversal, but there are two strong points against it: high purchase volumes and a high probability of double or broken divergence, which can lead to an increase to 1.1324 and even to 1.1356 - the level Fibonacci 76.4% on the daily chart. Also, in both graphs, the indicators are rising - the price is above the indicator lines, Marlin signal lines in the growth zone. But all growth factors have a stronger fall - today's data on labor in the United States. The forecast for Nonfarms is 180 thousand and an increase of hourly wages is 0.3%.

For the development of a downward trend, it is necessary to reduce the price below the MACD line on the four-hour chart (1.1205), which is near the previous day's low. Growth can begin at any time, especially if the US data are disappointing, and continue for several more days.