18.06.201901:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. June 17. Results of the day. Reducing the key rate of the Fed in the near future could be a shock to the market

4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p - 37p - 61p - 36p - 86p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 52p (54p).

The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair has passed, one can say, positively. Following the collapse of quotes on Friday, today, against the background of the complete absence of any macroeconomic statistics, traders began to adjust the pair. This correction is good, because, for example, the pound sterling continues a free fall at this very time. However, as we have repeatedly mentioned, despite disappointing data from overseas in the last two weeks, the US currency still enjoys far more confidence among traders than the euro. In recent days, more precisely, since the last speech by Jerome Powell, the community of traders have been discussing the possible reduction of the Fed rate in full swing, if not at the first meeting, then at one of the following in 2019. We still believe that nothing of the kind will happen this year, as the Fed has recently raised interest rates, not taking into account Trump's opinion that monetary tightening is taking place too quickly. We still believe that nothing of the kind will happen this year, as the Fed has recently raised interest rates, not taking into account Trump's opinion that monetary tightening is taking place too quickly. Obviously, the Fed did not raise the key rate out of the blue, and obviously two weeks of weak statistics are not a reason for such radical decisions. If the Fed nevertheless takes such a step, it can be a shock for the market, and the US dollar may sharply and significantly become cheaper against the European currency. Most importantly, the belief in the US dollar may disappear, which will put an end to the long-term downtrend trend in the euro/dollar pair. However, we will know all this on Wednesday. A press conference by Jerome Powell will again be the most interesting event, during which traders will look for any hints of a change in monetary policy or at least in Powell's rhetoric.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair began to adjust against the downward trend. Thus, we recommend that you wait for the correction to complete and purchase the dollar once again with a target level of 1.1176.

It will be possible to buy the euro/dollar pair again if traders manage to return above the critical line, with the first target of 1,1302. In this case, the initiative for the pair will return to the bulls.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.