04.11.201907:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 4, 2019

EUR/USD

Last Friday, data on US employment came out: in the non-agricultural sector in October, 128 thousand jobs were created against the expectations of 89 thousand, the September figure was revised to increase from 136 thousand to 180 thousand, the share of economically active population increased from 63.2% to 62.3%, due to which the unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.0% from 6.9%. Also, the October index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in October, according to ISM, increased from 47.8 to 48.3, and construction costs in September increased by 0.5% against the expectation of 0.2%. By the first reaction to these data, the euro lost about 30 points, but then buyers got the upper hand and the euro closed the day with a growth of 12 points. The data sharply lowered market expectations for lower rates in December – from 22% to 12%, gold rose by 0.12%, copper by 0.91%, oil by 3.67%, S&P500 +0.97%. Increased risk appetite on the face.

In the current situation, the growth of the euro does not hold anything back, but the technical nature of the rise warns of a possible reversal. On the daily chart, this sign is the probability of divergence formation on the Marlin oscillator. For its readiness, the price can easily rise to 1.1215 (Fibonacci level of 100.0%) or 1.1250 (maximum of August 6).

As seen on the four-hour chart, the price is fixed above the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator is growing. We are waiting for the price at the levels of 1.1215 and 1.1250. Overcoming the latter opens a higher target of 1.1295 (August 2018 minimum). But in this case, the divergence will not take place and the euro may grow in the medium term.