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EUR/USD 1H
Buyers continued to retreat from the highs reached the previous day on the hourly timeframe on June 24, showing their weak motivation for further upward movement. As a result, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance area of 1.1326-1.1341 and began a new round of downward movement to the ascending trend line. Thus, formally, an upward trend is still maintained, supported by just this trend line. It turns out that the fate of the euro/dollar pair for the coming days will be decided near this trend line. If it is overcome, then the bears will become active again and continue to put pressure on the dollar. Otherwise, buyers will try to once again pull the pair above the 1.1326-1.1341 area to form a new upward trend.
EUR/USD 15M
The lowest linear regression channel turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, which indicates a new approach of the pair to the downward movement. But now everything will depend on overcoming or not overcoming the trend line.
COT Report
The euro/dollar pair steadily rose until June 16 (the deadline, data for which is included in the latest COT report) and was only adjusted in recent days. According to the COT report, professional traders were busy during the entire reporting week, not with opening purchase contracts, which could be assumed based on the direction the pair was moving, but with closing sale contracts. In just five days, professional traders closed almost 20,000 Sell contracts and at the same time opened 1,300 Long Euro contracts. Thus, strengthening the European currency at that time was absolutely logical. But we emphasize that major market players are not buying the euro for the second week in a row, and therefore do not believe in the prospects of this currency. The euro grew for two weeks almost at the mere closure of contracts for sale by large speculators, which caused a skew of supply and demand for the euro. After a relatively small correction, the European currency resumed its upward movement, and the new COT report will answer the question whether the demand for the euro has increased this time, or is it going up again not because market participants buy it?
The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remained the same on Wednesday. No major changes. In principle, there were no high-profile events or macroeconomic statistics on this day. There will be loud statistics today. Reports on GDP and durable goods orders will be published in the United States. These are very important reports that cannot be ignored by traders. In recent days there has been a classic situation where "some cannot, but others do not want." Buyers already climbed too high to easily and naturally continue to buy the pair. Sellers are frankly afraid to start investing in the dollar, since all the events taking place in the United States now are tense. As a result, we become witnesses to the "swing". Today, the GDP report may make bulls trade more actively, because it is unlikely that the US economy will be less than 5% in the first quarter. But more than 5% is possible. The same goes for the durable goods order report. After two absolutely disastrous months, an increase is now expected in all categories of these products. But what will the evidence show? Three out of four indicators predict a low increase compared to April, which in reality may not be ...
Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 25:
1) Bears are making a new attempt to seize the initiative from the bulls and overcome the trend line. So far, they have managed to descend to the Kijun-sen line, overcoming which will make it possible to open sell-positions while aiming for a trend line. However, it will be possible to trade lower if the trend line is overcome. In this case, the targets for short positions will be the support levels 1.1112 and 1.1047. Potential Take Profit range from 40 to 200 points.
2) But the buyers perked up, but it was not enough to overcome the area of 1.1326-1.1341. Therefore, we advise you to wait until this area is overcome before buying the EUR/USD pair with a target at the resistance level of 1.1417. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 70 points.
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