17.08.202008:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 17. Bulls need to break through the resistance of 1.1865 to continue euro's growth

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Demand for the European currency returned on Friday after the eurozone GDP report coincided with economists' forecasts, and data on retail sales disappointed buyers of the US dollar. A false breakout of the 1.1790 level formed a good entry point into long positions, which I pointed out in my morning review, which caused EUR/USD to return to the area of weekly highs. Now the main task of the bulls is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1865, which will form a new point for entering the market in long positions. However, you need to understand that there are no important fundamental data planned for the beginning of the week, which will definitely tie the hands of new euro buyers. If the resistance breaks 1.1865, the next target of the bulls is a high of 1.1912, where I recommend taking the profit. In case EUR/USD falls after an unsuccessful attempt to grow in the first half of the day, it is best to postpone long positions until a false breakout forms in the support area of 1.1826, where the moving averages are now held, or buy euros immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.1784 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD you need:

Sellers need to hold the resistance at 1.1865, since a false breakout forming there will allow them to bring down the aggressive upward potential of the European currency at the beginning of this week. An unsuccessful breakout and return to the 1.1865 level will be a signal to open short positions, the first goal of which will be the low of 1.1826. The 1.1784 support area is still the long-term goal, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD grows further according to the trend formed on August 12, it is best to open short positions on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1912 in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Given that the release of important fundamental statistics at the beginning of the week is not planned, it is better not to rush with sales, and open them only from really large levels of resistance.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continued growth of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1870 may lead to further growth of the euro. In case of decline, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1800 area, from which you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.