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Yesterday, we tackled the issue of restrictive measures in the US. Today, we got information about new containment measures in Europe.
Let's take a look at the overall number of virus cases in various countries:
France – 2,087,183
Spain – 1,510,023
Italy – 1,238,072
Germany -833,732
Austria – 214,597
Europe is suffering from the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Previously imposed restrictive measures in a number of EU countries cannot halt the influx of new cases of the infection.
It is necessary to act radically. Many experts, including the heads of states of the European Union, are supporting this idea.
Transition to tougher measures is the main topic of news flow.
Austria is one of the first countries to introduce a full quarantine. Educational institutions are switching to distance learning, shopping centers are closing and only essential stores remain open. We went back to the spring scenario, and with only one difference, the situation got worse.
The German government, which was one of the first to introduce new restrictive measures during the autumn, sees an urgent need to tighten the control regime even more. We will probably see actions from the German authorities next week.
In France, bars and restaurants are already closed, but schools and parks are operating as usual. However, the country's authorities are thinking over new tools to contain the virus. Thus, the French government is working on a long-term strategy that will last even in 2021.
Regions of Italy are currently divided into three zones according to the degree of restriction.
·Yellow zone has minimum restrictions
·Orange zone is a zone with strict control
·Red zone is a zone with a full lockdown
At the moment, there are almost no yellow zones. There are orange and red marks everywhere.
In Spain, restrictive measures have already been extended until May 9, 2021, and in many regions, there is a curfew from 23:00 to 6:00. Bars, restaurants, theaters, and museums are closed until at least early December.
Greece has been under a lockdown since November 7. Everything is closed, in order to leave the house, you need to send an SMS message to the authorities.
The situation in the world is very difficult, investors are trying to save their capital, but restrictive measures frighten them. We can see that Europe is trying to tighten the control regime even more, which may lead to a slowdown in the economy in the medium term.
The United States, where the epidemiological situation is almost the same as in Europe, is introducing quarantine measures, but not as actively as Europe.
However, speculators are quite successful due to changes in currencies exchange rates on the basis of the news flow.
In terms of technical analysis, we can see that on November 17, the pair was doing its best to stay above the level of 1.1810. Moreover, it managed to reach again the high of 1.1868 logged on November 16. This indicates that the purchasing power is fairly high. In fact, the quote has already touched the area of interaction of trading forces that is 1.1900/1.1920. This means that the market recovered from the decline from 1.1920 to 1.1745.
Market dynamic on November 17 was low again. The activity was just 50 points, which is 36% below the average level. Low dynamic did not stop speculators. On a daily chart, we can see local jumps.
If we look at the daily chart, we can see that the sideways trend is still relevant in the market, even taking into account the current price changes.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, the final data on the eurozone inflation was revealed. Analysts' expectations were in line with the preliminary estimate, reflecting deflation of 0.3%.
At the time of publication, the market showed no reaction to the final results.
interaction of trading forces 1.1900/1.1920. Notably, the pair stopped rising near this area.
Since the pair failed to consolidate above 1.1920 in the four-hour chart, there is a risk of a natural price rebound following the example of the dynamic logged on November 9.
The perspective of the upward development considers the price's approach of the psychological level of 1.2000. There a sharp reduction in the volume of long positions is possible. This scenario may come true, if the price consolidates above 1.1920.
At the same time, the price may rebound from the area of interaction of trading forces 1.1900/1.1920. If the pair fixes below 1.1850, it may drop even lower to 1.1810-1.1800.
Indicator analysis
Let's analyze the price movement on various time frames. Thus, on the one-minute chart, we can see sell signals that appeared after a rebound from the area of the interaction of trading forces. On the hourly and daily charts, uptrend prevails. A change in the signal may occur, only if the price fixes below 1.1800.
Volatility for the week/Measurement of volatility: month; quarter; year
The measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for a month/quarter /year.
At the moment, market dynamic is only 50 points, which is 36% below the average level. Activity is still low. However, in the event of a breakdown or rebound from the area of interaction of trading forces, there may be an acceleration of volatility.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.1900-1.1920**; 1.2000***; 1.2100*; 1.2450**; 1.2550; 1.2825.
Support areas: 1.1810*; 1.1700; 1.1612*;1.1500; 1.1350; 1.1250*;1.1180**; 1.1080; 1.1000***.
* Periodic level
* * Range level
***Psychological level
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