01.06.202118:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin: the main reason for the collapse and the chances of recovery

Bitcoin continues to consolidate, and the technical picture on the daily chart has not changed significantly compared to yesterday. Therefore, the forecast given on Monday has not lost its relevance.

But on the 4-hour time frame, the technical picture looks more interesting, giving information for thought. But we will look at it a little later.

In the meantime, it is worth dwelling on the reason for the recent collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Yes, we know that these were Tesla's claims to bitcoin because of its non-environmental nature, the ban of China. But few people talk about the third reason, which was probably the main one. And the above news factors are just triggers.

After the collapse of the market, opinions about the leverage factor occasionally and timidly slipped in the statements of experts. But today, another article showed that this topic still deserves attention.

Many experts cite leverage as one of the reasons for the collapse of bitcoin. It was those who bought digital coins using margin conditions that started liquidating positions after receiving negative news. It was as if they were swept away by the wave of the fall. And it was repeatedly mentioned earlier that it was speculators, not holders, who left the market.

In particular, one of those who cited this reason was the host of the podcast "The Wolf of All Streets", Scott Melker.

"Of course, there was a big cycle of negative news, but cycles of negative news always seem to kick in when the system gets off the hook," Melker said.

"At a BTC price of between $60,000 and $50,000, we saw liquidations on exchanges of nearly $10 billion, which at the time was about three times more than any previous liquidation. Then from $40,000 to $30,000, we saw another $10 billion [in liquidation] before the price went back to about $40,000. In total, this is about 800,000 traders who completely liquidate their accounts," he added.

But if leverage was the main reason for the Bitcoin market crash, then in May it was not mentioned in the conversation about the BTC drop. "Leverage was dropped from the conversation because it is the real answer. But nobody wants you to have a real answer," said Melker.

As for the other news, Melker believes that there was nothing really "new" about it. The same China "banned" bitcoin repeatedly, but this time the market collapsed.

Going back to the graph, which is the 4-hour time frame, after the market crash, recovery occurs, forming an equilateral triangle. It is an ambiguous figure in terms of direction. But the exit from it usually occurs impulsively.

If its upper side is broken, then, given the technical potential of development, BTC/USD will most likely be able to overcome the resistance of 41,980.24 and gain a foothold higher. If quotes break through the lower border of the triangle, the downside potential will send BTC/USD to support at 28,392.99.

As you can see, at least a double bottom, a triangle, local targets for bitcoin, and a wide frame of the range 28,392.99 - 41,980.24 remain unchanged at present.