28.06.202112:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the US market (06/28/2021)

US stocks closed at weekly highs last Friday after Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, Nasdaq slipped a bit, by about 0.1%.

Surprisingly, Asian markets did not follow and declined instead by 0.1%. Both Japan and China indices posted a decrease.

As for oil, prices are at their highest level since 2018, thanks to growing global demand. Now, Brent costs $ 76 - $76.10.

With regards to the world's epidemiological situation, the total number of new COVID-19 infections is again around 300,000. The main reason is the new strain of coronavirus (Indian strain), which recently caused a sharp rise in cases in UK. Quarantine measures are again implemented in Britain and Australia because of it.

This week, the most important news will be the reports on US employment and industrial activity.

But for now, the most noteworthy is the recent report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which shows that the index of open speculative positions reached its maximum levels last week. This indicates that both the US stock market and commodity markets are overheated.

So, the S&P 500, which currently values 4.280 points, may range at 4.240 - 4.320 points today. One reason is the latest data on inflation, which shows that it reached 3.9% in May, well above the comfortable level set by the Federal Reserve. Some members of the central bank spoke in favor of an earlier rate hike, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he sees no problem with this, so they will not make drastic policy changes. Still, inflation in May is lower than the data on retail inflation released earlier. Perhaps, the 2% decline in personal income will lower inflation in the coming months, but the ongoing boom in the real estate market could offset this.

Meanwhile, the USD index has been in a very narrow range for some time now. Obviously, investors are divided on the further direction of dollar as on the one hand, rising inflation pushes the rate of the currency up, while on the other hand, the decision of the Fed to leave monetary policy unchanged keeps dollar down. So, the USD index, which is currently at 91.80, may close at 91.50 - 92.10 today. Perhaps, the upcoming US employment report will give a new impetus to the market.

As for USD/CAD, the continued growth in oil prices is putting pressure on the pair, which is why a strong decline is possible. So, from 1.2300, USD/CAD could slip to 1.2220-1.2350.

Conclusion: The US market will remain calm, but as soon as latest data are released, growth of as much as 5% may occur.