12.07.202215:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for USDJPY on July 12, 2022

Technical outlook:

USDJPY climbed above a fresh swing high at around 137.75 on Monday before hitting resistance and pulling back later on. The currency pair has slipped over 100 pips and is trading close to 136.75 at this point in writing and could slip below the 134.80 initial support to confirm a major top. Also, note that immediate trendline support would break below 134.80, which is encouraging for bears.

USDJPY has produced a meaningful larger-degree upswing, which began from the 102.59 lows since January 06, 2021. The currency pair has remainied in control of bulls for 18 months now in a row as the uptrend might have terminated at around 137.75. We still need confirmation for a further price action. A break below 134.80 will be the first step towards a deeper correction.

USDJPY was trading sideways within a tight range between 135.00 and 136.50 for quite a few trading sessions before breaking higher and producing the final thrust wave towards 137.75. Ideally, if a top is in place, prices should produce a sharp reversal towards 134.80 from current levels. Bears remain inclined to be in control from here provided prices stay below 137.75.

Going forward:

USDJPY has been accompanied by a strong bearish divergence on the 4H RSI as seen on the chart here. Since June 21, 2022, each high has produced a lower RSI as seen here, which is a strong potential bearish reversal signal. Also, note that bears are now targeting the 124.00-50 zone in the next several weeks, the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between 102.59 and 137.75.

Trading plan:

Potential drop towards 124.50 against 138.50

Good luck!