21.07.202218:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY crashes but buyers still in game

The USD/JPY pair climbed as much as 138.87 level where it found resistance and now it has plunged. It was traded at 137.98 at the time of writing above 137.71 today's low. I've told you in my previous analysis that the pair could register sharp movements after the BOJ.

Technically, the bias remains bullish despite the current sell-off. The rate stands above strong downside obstacles. Today, the Bank of Japan maintained the BOJ Policy Rate unchanged at -0.10% as expected. In addition, the Trade Balance came in at -1.93T below -2.10T expected.

Fundamentally, the USD is sluggish in the short term after the Unemployment Claims indicator was reported at 251K versus 240K estimated. Also, the CB Leading Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in worse than expected.

USD/JPY BOJ Brought High Volatility!

As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate failed to stay above the 138.37 key level and now it has challenged the uptrend line and the 137.75 which represent downside obstacles. As long as it stays above these levels, the USD/JPY pair could try to come back higher.

Only a valid breakdown of the near-term downside obstacles could open the door for a deeper drop. This scenario could take shape if the DXY drops deeper and if the Japanese Yen Futures will rebound.

USD/JPY Forecast!

A new lower low, a valid breakdown below 137.71 could activate more declines. This scenario could short signals. Still, as long as it stays above the uptrend line, we could look for long opportunities. False breakdowns (pin par) or a bullish pattern (bullish engulfing) could signal new bullish momentum.