28.07.202207:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD: uside scenario takes shape

The AUD/USD pair rallied as the Dollar Index dropped after the FOMC, even though the FED increased the Federal Funds Rate from 1.75% to 2.50% as expected. It seems that the current rate hike had been already priced in. After its strong rally, the currency pair could retreat to test and retest the near-term support levels before resuming its growth.

Fundamentally, the AUD could lose ground as the Australian economic data came in worse than expected. The Retail Sales rose by 0.2% less compared to 0.5% expected, while the Import Prices surged by 4.3% less versus 4.5% estimated.

Today, the US data could be decisive. The first estimate GDP is seen as a high-impact event and it's expected to report a 0.4% growth after the 1.6% drop in the previous quarter. In addition, the flash GDP Price Index and the Unemployment Claims indicators will be released as well.

AUD/USD Retests The Buyers!

As you already know from my analysis, AUD/USD could resume its growth as long as it stays above the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork. It has retested this dynamic support before jumping higher.

I've told you in my previous analysis that a valid breakout above 0.6977 and through the upper median line (uml) could signal an upside continuation.

AUD/USD Forecast!

The currency pair found resistance above the weekly R1 (0.7010) and now it has retreated. It could test and retest the immediate downside obstacles before resuming its growth. A valid breakout above the R1 and a new higher high, a bullish closure above 0.7012 could announce further growth and could bring long opportunities.

Only dropping and stabilizing below 0.6967 could invalidate an upside continuation and could signal a downside movement.