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The EUR/USD pair again tried to correct after a fairly strong fall on Monday, but this time it failed to even reach the level of 1.0938, from which it had bounced twice before. Thus, the bulls' next attempt to raise the euro exchange rate broke down a bit. There were no important events in the EU or the US during Monday. Several representatives of the Federal Reserve were supposed to make speeches in the US, but the market is already perfectly familiar with the rhetoric of the majority of the central bank's members. Moreover, it is already almost 100% known what measures the Fed will take at the next meeting. And these expectations give additional strength to the US currency. It should also be noted that the most important event of the week - the inflation report - is yet to come. Or, to be more precise, today. We cannot say that something fundamentally depends on it for the euro/dollar pair, but if inflation continues to grow and exceed forecasts, this will be an even more compelling reason to raise Fed rates by 0.5% during the next meetings. This is a strong bullish factor for the dollar.
As for trading signals, there were two of them during today. The first buy signal was formed when the pair overcame the critical line, which fell to the level of 1.0911 during the day. After this signal, the pair went up 15 points, which was enough to set Stop Loss to breakeven. According to this order, a long position was closed when the price returned to the Kijun-sen line. Consolidating below this line was already a signal to sell, which also had to be worked out. As a result, the pair managed to fall by 25 points, which traders could earn on this deal.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report turned out to be more interesting than the previous ones. Even paradoxical, because the big players were building long positions. During the reporting week, the number of longs increased by 10,800, and the number of shorts in the "non-commercial" group - by 4,800. Thus, the net position increased by 6,000 contracts. This means that the bullish mood has intensified. It is bullish, since the total number of long positions now exceeds the total number of short positions with non-commercial traders by almost 30,000. Accordingly, the paradox lies in the fact that the mood of traders is bullish, but the euro is falling almost non-stop. We have already explained in previous articles that this effect is achieved by an even higher demand for the US dollar. It turns out that the demand for the dollar is higher than the demand for the euro, which is why the dollar is rising against the euro currency. Based on this conclusion, these COT reports on the euro currency now do not make it possible to predict the pair's further movement. They are, one might say, meaningless. However, if the demand for the euro starts to fall among professional players, this may lead to an even greater fall in the euro, since the demand for the dollar is likely to remain high due to geopolitics and macroeconomics.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. 12th of April. The Ukrainian-Russian conflict could drag on for many years.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. 12th of April. French presidential election: Macron and Le Pen advance to the second round.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on April 12. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
It is clearly seen that the pair continues to fall on the hourly timeframe, but it is still impossible to form either a trend line or a descending channel. Over the past few days, the pair has been more sideways than trending, but the failure to settle above 1.0938 calls into question even a modest rise in the euro. Thus, we still expect the euro to fall further, as all the factors that put pressure on the euro remain relevant. On Tuesday, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.0729, 1.0806, 1.0938, 1.1036, as well as Senkou Span B (1.1029) and Kijun-sen (1.0911). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single important or even interesting event or report is scheduled for April 12 in the European Union. But the US will publish a report on inflation, which may cause a surge in activity in the foreign exchange market. This does not mean that the dollar will definitely rise in price today, however, there may be strong movements in the second half of the day.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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