08.02.202316:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: S&P 500: current dynamics and near-term prospects

Before the start of the U.S. trading session today, the dollar continues to give up earlier gains, declining moderately from the opening of today's trading day. As of writing, DXY futures were trading near 103.02, 65 points below the 4-week high from earlier this week at 103.67.

Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seems to have disappointed market participants who were betting on further dollar growth, although he did not say anything that could greatly alarm investors. In general, he repeated recent statements by Fed leaders that they are committed to further combating high inflation, and a strong labor market allows them to continue doing so.

Powell noted Friday's strong U.S. jobs report came in stronger than expected and reiterated that further interest rate hikes are needed. "We may need to take more action if we continue to get strong labor market reports or higher inflation," Powell said, but also expects a "significant decline" in inflation this year, which is likely what has put dollar buyers on their guard and caused it to fall on the basis of yesterday's trading day.

With regard to the U.S. labor market mentioned above, it is known that the number of jobs in the non-farm sector of the U.S. economy grew by 517,000 people in January, and overall unemployment fell to 3.4%, from 3.5% a month earlier. At the same time, the data turned out to be much stronger than the forecast values (+185,000 after a December increase of +260,000).

In our recent review of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the American stock market, we have already pointed out the relationship between the possible level of the interest rate and the unemployment rate.

At the moment, unemployment remains at multi-year lows, while the inflation rate is still significantly high. This creates prerequisites for further growth of the interest rate in the United States. And if you rely on the comparative tables given in the article, then the interest rate can still be increased (almost a multiple) to the current level.

Tomorrow, the U.S. Labor Department will present fresh data from the labor market. Figures for jobless claims may rise slightly, which may negatively affect the dollar in the short term.

Today, in the absence of important macrostatistical releases, market participants will follow the speeches of the Fed's management and Board of Governor members John Williams and Christopher Waller (at 14:20 and 18:45 GMT). They may also be joined by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, though their comments have much less impact on the markets than Fed Chair Powell.

Meanwhile, futures on the major U.S. stock indices (NASDAQ100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average) remain positive, trading in a bull market zone. Right now, the S&P500 U.S. broad market index futures are trading near 4150.00, in the zone of 6-month highs reached on February 02 near 4195.00.

Above the key support levels 4030.00, 4000.00, the S&P 500 is in a bull market zone, and above the important short-term support level 4054.00, nothing threatens long positions.