12.04.202309:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 12/04/2023

The markets have paused in anticipation of the US inflation report, which can determine further developments. There is practically no doubt that the pace of inflation growth will slow down. The only question is how much. The most likely scenario is that it would fall from 6.0% to 5.3%. However, inflation could also slow down more significantly, with some suggesting that it may drop to 5.2%. In any case, further inflationary decline is another argument in favor of an immediate end to the Federal Reserve's current policy, and a start to gradual interest rate cuts. This, of course, will have a negative impact on the dollar, contributing to its further weakening. The extent to which inflation slows down will only determine the scale of the dollar's decline. However, in any case, the market will stay put until the data is released, and some activity will begin prior to it. Moreover, most likely, the dollar will initially strengthen, but then it will start to rapidly fall once the data is released.

Inflation (United States):

GBP/USD has partially recovered its position from the recent pullback. This indicates that the bullish sentiment is still intact. In the future, this could lead to an update of the local high in the medium-term.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator crossed the 50 line upwards. This signal may indicate the end of the pullback and an increase in the volume of long positions on the pound.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs have multiple intersections, which also indicates the end of the correction. On the daily chart, it signals an uptrend.

Outlook

We can assume that once the pair climbs above the 1.2450 level, this means that the correction has ended, which in turn will lead to a subsequent increase in the volume of long positions and, as a result, to an update of the local high in the medium-term.

Traders can consider a different scenario if the technical signal turns out to be false and the quote falls below 1.2350.

The complex indicator analysis indicates that the pound will recover in the short-term and intraday periods.