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UK inflation rate for May amounted to 8.7%, remaining at the level of the previous month. Analytical agencies had predicted a slowdown in price growth to 8.4%.
Given this data, there is confidence that the Bank of England will increase its key interest rate.
The speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank have become the main leverage for speculators.
The speech by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at the conference "New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment" caused a wave of speculation on the euro. Schnabel clearly indicated that a high level of inflation may persist for a prolonged period. This will lead to subsequent increases in the key interest rate. Almost at the same time as the ECB representative, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, spoke in Congress, but he did not say anything new, only reiterating that most members of the Federal Reserve are inclined to raise the rate by the end of the year, which was already known.
The EUR/USD currency pair completed a correction phase with a new upward cycle. During this phase, not only was the local high of the previous week surpassed, but the exchange rate also reached the psychological level of 1.1000.
The GBP/USD pair slowed down its correction formation around the 1.2700 level. This led to a partial recovery of long positions, but there are no radical changes on the trading chart.
Today, market participants will pay special attention to the outcomes of the Bank of England meeting. Investors expect the possibility of a significant interest rate hike after a new inflation shock.
Markets are pricing in a 45% probability of a rate increase to 5% at the June meeting and a 55% probability of a more conventional increase of 25 basis points.
Special attention will be given to the regulator's comments regarding their view on future inflation and interest rates.
Time targeting:
Bank of England meeting outcome – 11:00 UTC
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting – 11:00 UTC
Bank of England inflation letter – 12:00 UTC
A sharp price change and approaching the key level could have led to the euro being overbought. However, speculators may ignore technical signals if the price continues to hold above the 1.1000 level. In the event of a price rebound from the psychological level, traders will consider a downward scenario.
In this situation, the outcome of the Bank of England meeting will have a significant impact on further price movement. The regulator's decision may cause speculative fluctuations in the market. Based on technical analysis, for a possible correction, the quote needs to stay below the 1.2700 level. Otherwise, there may be a gradual increase in long positions, which will lead to a return of the price to the 1.2850 level and a continuation of the upward trend.
The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future.
The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.
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