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There's a good number of macroeconomic events slated for Friday, with the most important ones taking place in the United States. Apart from the U.S., there will be only one economic report in Germany—the final assessment of inflation for November. This report is of secondary importance, and the final assessment rarely differs from the first. Therefore, the market will focus on the U.S. reports.
There is a lot to analyze. Under current circumstances, the NonFarm Payrolls report can be considered one of the most important reports in general. This indicator has been steadily declining for two years, but what truly matters is not whether it is declining or not, but whether the current value corresponds to the forecast. If the latest figure surpasses 180,000, the dollar may strengthen. The second thing to keep an eye on is the unemployment report. The market does not expect it to rise above 3.9%, but even if it does, the main focus will be on NonFarm Payrolls.
The last two reports—changes in average earnings and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index—will be in the shadow of the first two. They can influence traders' sentiment only if the first two turn out to be completely neutral.
As for fundamental events on Friday, there is no scheduled event. However, as we have already mentioned, fundamental events currently have almost no impact on the dollar, euro, or pound. At this time, there are no important speeches, as we are approaching the period of the last central bank meetings of the year, and members of monetary committees are forbidden to give comments concerning the rates.
As mentioned, we can look forward to a number of events on Friday. The U.S. reports are considered important. And although the recent reports have been weak, this time everything could change. In any case, we expect increased volatility for both pairs in the second half of the day, and the direction of movement will depend on the nature of the reports. It is pointless to speculate on which direction a particular pair will move.
1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.
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