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Trade analysis and tips on trading the European currency
The analysis of the designated levels in the first half of the day did not materialize. Low volatility is the main reason for the lack of signals. Let's delve into that since the focus has shifted to US data. Many expect disappointment in the non-agricultural employment report. If this happens, pressure on the dollar will return, and the euro will rise significantly despite the European Central Bank's expectations of a soft policy. The movement will be momentary, so action needs to be taken quickly. If the data surpasses all economists' forecasts, and the end of strikes in the US may help, then the EUR/USD pair will break weekly lows and continue to decline. In any case, I will act based on scenario #1, regardless of the indicators on the MACD at that moment.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.0793 (green line on the chart) and rises to 1.0825. At 1.0825, I recommend exiting the market and selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro today can be expected only in the case of very weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Buying the euro today is also possible in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0773 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0793 and 1.0825.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Selling the euro is possible after reaching the level of 1.0773 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0735. I recommend exiting the market and buying the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will increase with a strong labor market report and the absence of buyer activity around the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: Selling the euro today is also possible in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0793 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. Expect a decrease to the opposite level of 1.0773 and 1.0735.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, following overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your deposit without placing stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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