16.10.201310:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD analysis for October 16, 2013

Long-term review

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the AUDUSD pair has been trading upwards, final .C wave (coloured black) of the bigger Y wave (coloured blue) has been developing. During Tuesday's Asian and European sessions, we could observe ascending movements from 0.9505 towards the 0.9546 level, and we can consider this move as the end of the A wave (coloured red). Therefore, during the early New York session this commodity pair did not manage to hold the highs and the price retraced back to the 0.9497 level. At the moment, the AUDUSD pair is trading around the 0.9520 level and we are expecting to see the price lowering within the next couple of weeks. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave B should retrace 50% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 0.9195 (50% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at the 0.9545 level as stop loss.

Alternate Count: we just ended the first leg of the alt (Y) (coloured green), and yesterday's move lower was just a corrective wave b of (Y). The break to the new highs will make us to wait a little bit longer, before we start looking for short positions in the b wave.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9416 (S2) 0.9446 (S1) 0.9486 (PP) 0.9516 (R1) 0.9556 (R2) 0.9586 (R3) 0.9626

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.9480 with stop loss at 0.9545 and take profit at 0.9195 are recommended.

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