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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency
The price test at 1.0660 in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the signal to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points. Good data on activity in the private sectors of Eurozone countries and a situation in the manufacturing sector of Germany that is more or less decent, or rather not worse than it was, allowed the signal to buy the euro to be realized in the first half of the day. During the American session, the situation may lean towards buyers of the US dollar, as strong data related to economic activity is expected. Attention should be paid to figures on the manufacturing sector business activity index, the services sector business activity index, and the composite PMI index of the US, as well as figures on the volume of home sales in the primary market. Strong manufacturing activity along with a rising housing market - here is the recipe for a strong US dollar. If the data disappoints, euro buyers will make another attempt to renew the daily maximum. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0674 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.0719. At the point of 1.0719, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after very weak statistics from the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0644 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0674 and 1.0719.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0644 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0601, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the absence of buyer activity near the daily maximum and strong statistics from the US. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0674 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0644 and 1.0601.
Chart Information:
Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick green line - the estimated price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line - the estimated price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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