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Trade analysis and advice on trading the European currency
There was no test of the levels I marked in the first half of the day. For this reason, it was not possible to find a suitable entry point into the market. Yes, the IFO data for Germany came out fairly good, allowing euro buyers to maintain their positions after a slight decline observed in the first half of the day. Now it's very important how traders will react to the US statistics, which, by the way, are not very significant, but positive dynamics in US durable goods orders may trigger a new euro sell-off in the second half of the day. Time will tell whether buyers can handle the pressure this time. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and#2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.0704 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 1.0753. At 1.0753, I will exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after very weak US statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0681 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0704 and 1.0753.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell euros after reaching the level of 1.0681 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0642, where I plan to exit the market and buy euros immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of inactivity of buyers near the daily maximum and strong US statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0704 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0681 and 1.0642.
On the Chart:
Thin green line – entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – expected price, where you can place Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – expected price, where you can place Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to follow overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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