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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Friday, ending the day by solidifying below the support zone of 1.2690–1.2705. This close suggests that the pound may continue to fall toward the 1.2611 level, and the decline may not stop there. The bears remain relatively weak for now, having only taken one step towards a bearish trend. However, they must manage to break through the 1.2690–1.2705 zone. If the bulls do not push the pound back above this zone soon, their trend will be over.
The wave pattern changed on Friday. The last upward wave broke the peak from June 4, and the new downward wave broke the low from June 10. Therefore, the trend for GBP/USD has shifted to bearish. I am cautious about concluding that a bearish trend has started, as the bulls are still very strong, and this week, the UK inflation report and the Bank of England meeting will be released. The emerging advantage of the bears could be easily wiped out. Nevertheless, if the bears hold the market below the 1.2690–1.2705 zone, they have a good chance of further declines.
Friday's news did not help the dollar. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 65.6 points for June, against traders' expectations of 72 points. As a result, dollar bulls retreated after the release of this index. Fortunately, they had already consolidated below the 1.2690–1.2705 zone by then. If the report had come out earlier, we might have seen the eighth rebound from this zone. As mentioned, this week's UK inflation report is extremely important. Even the slightest deviation from market expectations could cause the pound to surge or fall further. A smaller decline in inflation could trigger growth, and the same applies to the Bank of England meeting. The bulls have not left the market and will wait for hints about maintaining a hawkish monetary policy for as long as possible.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the ascending trend line. Therefore, the decline in quotes could continue towards the next level of 1.2620. A rebound from this level could allow the bears to pause briefly, while a consolidation below it could pave the way for further declines towards the next level of 1.2450. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today.
The sentiment among non-commercial traders became even more bullish last week. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 8,182 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 729. The bulls hold a solid advantage again. The gap between long and short contracts is 52,000: 110,000 against 58,000.
However, the pound still faces excellent prospects for a decline. Graphical analysis has provided several signals indicating a breakdown of the bullish trend, and the bulls cannot attack indefinitely. Over the past three months, the number of long contracts has increased from 102,000 to 110,000, while the number of short contracts has risen from 44,000 to 58,000. Over time, major players will continue to reduce their buy positions or increase their sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. However, the key factor this week will be the news background from the UK.
On Monday, the economic events calendar contains only a few significant entries. Therefore, the information background will not impact market sentiment for the rest of the day.
Selling the pound was possible upon closing below the 1.2788 – 1.2801 zone, targeting 1.2690 – 1.2705. This zone has been breached, so short positions can be held open, targeting 1.2611. New sales can be considered on a rebound from the 1.2690–1.2705 zone from below. Buying can be considered upon consolidation above the 1.2690–1.2705 zone, targeting the 1.2788–1.2801 zone.
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