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The test of the price at 1.0711 in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had surged significantly above the zero mark, limiting further upward potential for the pair. For this reason, I refrained from selling the euro. Shortly after, there was another test of 1.0711, occurring while the MACD was in overbought territory, allowing Scenario #2 to sell the euro to materialize. However, a significant downward movement did not follow. In the second half of the day, there are no important statistics, so it is best to pay attention to the speeches of the representatives of the Federal Reserve, namely John Williams and Patrick T. Harker. However, they are unlikely to announce anything new that could lead to a reversal of the downward trend, so it is best to act in favor of continuing the pair's decline. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0726 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.0754. I will exit the market at 1.0754 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, a rise in the euro can only be expected after very weak US data or a dovish tone from Federal Reserve officials. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0702, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise towards the levels of 1.0726 and 1.0754.
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0702 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0669, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of activity from euro buyers after the speeches of Federal Reserve representatives. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0726, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline towards the levels of 1.0702 and 1.0669.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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