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Today, gold is rising for the second consecutive day, climbing above $2,425. This increase, the third in the past four days, is driven by several factors, pushing the commodity to a weekly high. Israel's attack on the Lebanese capital in response to Saturday's rocket strike has increased the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In addition, a weak global economic growth forecast and the continued retreat of the US dollar, which reached a nearly three-week high on Tuesday, are favoring the precious metal.
However, bulls should refrain from taking aggressive positions and wait for additional signals regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Therefore, attention should be focused on the results of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that will be published later today during the US session. Along with geopolitical events, this will determine the short-term trajectory of XAU/USD.
From a technical standpoint, the recent rebound from the $2,350-$2,360 zone and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) support zone, along with the subsequent move beyond the $2,400 level, favor the bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are gaining positive momentum again, supporting the prospects for further growth. In addition, strength beyond the $2,412-$2,415 zone confirms a positive outlook and could lift the price to last week's high of around $2,432. Sustained strength beyond this level would indicate that the corrective decline from the all-time high has ended and set the stage for additional gains. Then, the XAU/USD pair could rise to the intermediate barrier in the $2,469-$2,470 zone, aiming to challenge the all-time high.
On the other hand, the round level of $2,400 now protects against immediate downside before the $2,390-$2,380 zone, below which the price could fall back to the 50-day SMA, currently tied to the $2,359 level. A convincing break of this area, leading to a subsequent decline below last week's low of around $2,353, would be seen as a new trigger for the bears and make the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to further decline. The downward trajectory could extend towards testing the next relevant support area around $2,325 and the round level of $2,300.
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