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The EUR/USD pair traded for most of Wednesday in the 1.0917–1.0929 zone. This zone is undoubtedly too narrow to keep the price within it, but overall trading took place within this range. Trader activity has significantly dropped compared to Monday or Friday, which is unsurprising given the lack of news background on the previous two days. I believe signals around the 1.0917–1.0929 zone can form, but in recent days we have observed horizontal movement.
The wave situation has become a bit more complicated, but overall it raises no questions. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and a new upward wave broke the peak from July 16. Thus, the "bullish" trend still holds. For the "bullish" trend to reverse, the bears now need to break the low of the last downward wave, which is around the 1.0778 level. Even better would be to secure below the 1.0781–1.0799 zone, which acts as the strongest support.
The information background on Wednesday was very weak. A single report on industrial production in Germany is clearly not enough to contribute to a strong rise or fall in the pair. At the same time, it wouldn't hurt to analyze the overall dynamics of the pair, given the current lack of news. The trend of recent months is undoubtedly "bullish," but will it continue? Amid growing expectations of a significant rate cut by the Fed, the dollar has lost another couple of hundred points. But are these expectations justified? It should be noted that since the beginning of the year, traders have been expecting extreme measures from the Fed to ease monetary policy. At the beginning of the year, there was a discussion of 6-7 rate cuts; by summer, it became clear that even two easing steps were an optimistic scenario. But after another weak report on unemployment and the labor market, rumors suddenly surfaced about a 0.50% rate cut as early as August or in September. Due to these rumors, the dollar is falling again, and whether these rumors will come true is irrelevant because the dollar has already declined.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 23.6% corrective level at 1.0977 and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Thus, the decline in quotes can continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.0876. Securing the pair above the 1.0977 level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next corrective level of 0.0% at 1.1139. There are no emerging divergences observed in any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 5,923 long positions and opened 12,184 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group shifted to "bearish" a couple of months ago, but currently, bulls are dominating again. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 183,000, while short positions are at 165,000.
I still believe the situation will continue to favor the bears. I do not see long-term reasons to buy euros since the ECB has started easing monetary policy, which will reduce the yield on bank deposits and government bonds. In America, they will remain at high levels at least until September, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for the euro to decline looks substantial. However, one should not forget about graphical analysis, which currently does not allow us to confidently talk about a significant fall in the euro, as well as the information background.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone
USA – Change in the number of jobless claims (12:30 UTC).
On August 8, the economic events calendar contains only one entry that is not excessively important. The influence of the information background on market sentiment for the rest of the day will be absent.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading advice
Selling the pair is possible today with a target of 1.0879 on the hourly chart if the pair secures below the support zone of 1.0917–1.0929. Buying will be possible upon securing above the support zone of 1.0917–1.0929 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1008. In both cases, do not expect a strong rise or fall.
Fibonacci Levels Grids
Hourly Chart: 1.0668–1.1008
4-Hour Chart: 1.0450–1.1139
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