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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
Due to the extremely low volatility of the euro and the complete lack of significant fundamental data from the Eurozone in the first half of the day, I didn't make any trades. The levels I identified were not tested, so there were no clear entry points. During the American session, a significant amount of data is being released. It will start with the number of building permits issued, the number of new housing starts, and will conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Don't forget the interview with FOMC member Austan D. Goolsbee, as his dovish statements could weaken the dollar toward the end of the week. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to operate based on the implementation of scenario No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price around 1.1002 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the 1.1025 level. I will exit the market at 1.1025 and then sell the euro, targeting a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro today is unlikely, just as a significant decline is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0970 price, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential, leading to a reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.1002 and 1.1025 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0970 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0934 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro (targeting a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a failed attempt to rise above the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1002 price, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0970 and 1.0934 can be expected.
Chart Details:
Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.Thick green line – the assumed price where you can place Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.Thick red line – the assumed price where you can place Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it's important to consider the zones of overbought and oversold conditions.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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