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Analysis of Trades and Tips for the Euro
The price test of 1.1178 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by about ten pips, but it did not lead to a significant decline. Although the weak data from Germany had some effect, few people are willing to sell the euro even at such prices. The second half of the day lacks fundamental events, and data on changes in durable goods orders in the US is unlikely to provide the market with significant momentum. Therefore, it is better to follow the upward trend and look for buying opportunities on dips at attractive prices and levels, which I will discuss below. For the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2, continuing the trend.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1. Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1184, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1209. At the point of 1.1209, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A strong upward movement in the euro is unlikely today, but it's best to trade with the trend. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1167 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1184 and 1.1209.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1. I will sell the euro after the price reaches the level of 1.1167, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.1150, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will persist if there is very strong US data, but this is unlikely. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1184 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1167 and 1.1150.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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