04.09.202413:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

For the second consecutive day, the AUD/JPY pair has been declining.

The decline in the AUD/JPY pair's rate can be attributed to the Japanese yen's strengthening after the release of Jibun Bank Services PMI data. In August, the index was revised downward to 53.7 from the initial estimate of 54.0. Despite this being the seventh consecutive month of growth in the services sector, the latest figure has remained unchanged since July.

Today, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi stated that he is closely monitoring developments in both domestic and international markets. He emphasized the importance of conducting fiscal and economic policy in close coordination with the Bank of Japan, while also stressing the need for a calm assessment of market movements, avoiding comments on daily stock fluctuations.

As for the Australian dollar, following the release of Australia's GDP, it was revealed that growth in the second quarter was 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. This is higher than the 0.1% growth of the previous quarter, though it falls short of the expected 0.3%.

Additionally, the Services PMI for China dropped from 52.1 in July to 51.6 in August. This is worth noting due to the close trade relationship between China and Australia. Furthermore, Bank of America has revised its forecast for China's economic growth, lowering its projection for 2024 to 4.8% from the previous 5.0%. The forecast for 2025 was adjusted downward to 4.5%, while the projection for 2026 remains unchanged at 4.5%.

From a technical perspective, the pair's rate is attempting to halt its decline near the key level of 97.00. However, it's too early to talk about a recovery for the pair, as oscillators on the daily chart have not yet entered positive territory.