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The price test of 142.82 occurred when the MACD indicator began its descent from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar amidst the downward trend observed in recent months. As a result, the pair fell more than 80 pips, but we did not reach the target level. Although the U.S. dollar recovered some losses against other currencies by the end of the week, the situation with the Japanese yen was different. Dollar purchases triggered by the news of a decrease in U.S. unemployment ended very quickly, leading to another significant USD/JPY sell-off at the close of the U.S. session. Today's news of weak growth in Japan's GDP and a reduction in bank lending affected the yen's positions, leading to a slight recovery of the pair after Friday's sell-off. Trading is likely to occur within a horizontal channel today, as no significant data are expected. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 143.11, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 143.80, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. At the 143.80 area, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. An increase in the pair today can be expected as part of a correction. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 142.74 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 143.11 and 143.80.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 142.74 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 142.02, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment, since the bearish market for the dollar has not disappeared. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 143.11 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. Expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 142.74 and 142.02.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
