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The price test at 1.1027 occurred when the MACD indicator started rising from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 pips, testing the target level of 1.1064. The euro rose after the European Central Bank's decision on the key interest rate was not as dovish as expected, along with ECB President Christine Lagarde's statements that future easing policy would be based on economic data, even though inflation in the Eurozone is gradually returning to normal. Today, we await data on the Eurozone's industrial production and France's Consumer Price Index. In addition to the data, a Eurogroup meeting will take place, but it will have little impact on the currency market. It is best to continue trading within the new upward trend but be highly cautious with long positions near the weekly high. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the realization of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1092 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 1.1125. At the 1.1125 mark, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is possible to count on the euro's rise today in the first half of the day as a continuation of yesterday's bullish momentum. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1073 price at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward market reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1092 and 1.1125.
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1073 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1045 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Selling pressure on the pair will return if there is a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high and weak Eurozone data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1092 price at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1073 and 1.1045.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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