15.09.201116:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis, September 15, 2011

There is a scenario of global slowdown, mainly influenced by the debt problems of Europe and the delicate economic situation facing the U.S., which now has a population growth of around 1% that fails to reduce the high levels of unemployment. In this environment, emerging countries, mainly Latin Americans, although they are entrenched in a situation with respect to external shocks, and are not immune to a possible worsening of the fiscal crisis of the G3 debt and feel the impact, especially relating to external trade (real channel) and capital flows (financial channel).


The reduction in global demand has added to concern policy makers in emerging countries, which suffer a contraction in aggregate demand in their economies. The exhibition of Latin American countries to the vagaries of the business cycle in developed economies, unlike other historical moments, is relatively low, Mexico is the exception because it depends heavily on the U.S. economic cycle. However, the main trading partners in the region, as is the case of China has a high exposure to economic problems that may arise in the advanced economies, and could spread to Latin America indirectly.