20.09.202416:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/JPY pair has been climbing for five consecutive days, nearing a three-week high as it attempts to recover the 191.00 level. This upward movement is influenced by selling pressure on the Japanese yen, triggered by less hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda during a press conference. Additionally, Japan's interest rates remained unchanged, contrary to expectations. Ueda noted that while prices in the country remain high, the risks of inflation exceeding targets have diminished. This undermines the yen's safe-haven appeal amid bullish global market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the British pound is benefiting from the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged and reduce its holdings of government bonds by another £100 billion over the next 12 months. This decision provides additional momentum to the GBP/JPY pair, supporting its upward trend.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is gaining positive momentum, reinforcing the outlook for further growth. However, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has declined below the 200-day SMA, signaling caution for the bulls. As a result, any further upward movement may encounter strong resistance around the 50-day SMA, currently near the 191.75 level. Beyond that is the psychological level of 192.00, and surpassing this level could push the GBP/JPY pair higher, though it may face resistance at the 200-day SMA around the 192.35 level.

On the other hand, the 190.40–190.35 zone offers immediate support before the key psychological level of 190.00 and horizontal support at 189.45. Further selling pressure could drag the GBP/JPY pair lower toward the 189.00 level, with the potential to reach the swing low of 188.65. Failure to defend these support levels could pave the way for deeper losses, with spot prices potentially accelerating toward the round number of 188.00 and beyond.