04.10.202404:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 4, 2024

The euro has completed the minimum target after breaking below the MACD line on the daily chart—touching the target level of 1.1010 with its lower shadow. The Marlin oscillator is slightly turning upward in bearish territory. As of this morning, an almost ideal moment has formed for a reversal toward 1.1186 and higher. However, if the euro moves lower after the release of U.S. employment data, the likelihood of further decline toward 1.0882 and then 1.0777 will sharply increase.

Unfortunately, in the current atmosphere of market nervousness, it's difficult to determine the direction of the market after strong or weak data releases, as investors may have differing views on the future situation. Therefore, we cannot rule out strong movements in both directions. However, the main scenario remains—a possible attempt to form another upward leg before a long-term reversal toward dollar strengthening.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is rising. In the local situation, this confirms the potential for the upward scenario. A break above 1.1076 would also correspond to overcoming the MACD line on the daily chart. We await the market's reaction to the U.S. data later today.