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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1028 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 20 pips, though it didn't quite reach the target level. Yesterday's strong ISM data on U.S. services activity led to a euro sell-off and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Comments from Federal Reserve representatives about a more cautious approach to future interest rate cuts also contributed to the pair's decline. Today, the euro may continue to fall following weak reports on Italy's retail sales and France's industrial production, along with the speech of European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson. Poor data will likely increase pressure on the pair during the first half of the day, especially ahead of the critical U.S. labor market report. We'll discuss this report in more detail in the forecast for the second half of the day. Regarding the intraday strategy, I'll mainly focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the area of 1.1040 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.1080. At the 1.1080 point, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expect the euro to rise in the first half of the day only after strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1024 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1040 and 1.1080 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1024 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0993 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if it fails to break beyond the daily high and Eurozone data are weak. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1040 price while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1024 and 1.0993 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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