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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0954 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Shortly afterward, there was another test of this price, with the MACD in the oversold area, allowing for the realization of Scenario #2 for buying. However, as you can see on the chart, the pair did not rise. The statements from Federal Reserve representatives and the release of the minutes of the September meeting supported the dollar, not the euro. Today, data on Italy's industrial production and a report from the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting will be released in the first half of the day. This will likely not affect the market, as all attention will be focused on the US data, which we will discuss in more detail in the forecast for the second half of the day. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the realization of Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0951 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0979. At the 1.0979 level, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We will unlikely see a significant rise in the euro in the first half of the day, as no important data is expected from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0934 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards the opposite levels of 1.0951 and 1.0979 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0934 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0910, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair may return today if there is a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high and if the ECB minutes suggest further active rate cuts in the eurozone. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0951 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0934 and 1.0910 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should carefully make entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop-loss orders, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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