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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 153.15 price level aligned with the MACD indicator just beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying dollars as part of the ongoing upward trend. The pair subsequently rose by only 30 pips before the movement stalled. Trading remained within the horizontal channel, which is still the case at the time of writing. Today's strong numbers on Japan's industrial production and the Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates unchanged were expected. However, traders reacted by buying yen and selling dollars, hoping for a potential rate hike by the BOJ later this year. For the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 153.11 (green line on the chart) with a target of 154.25 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 153.94, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). The pair's upward trend may continue, but buying is best done on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.73 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 153.11 and 153.94.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below 152.73 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.12, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Selling pressure on the pair may increase if the U.S. data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.11 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 152.73 and 152.12.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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