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On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly, with even the FOMC meeting failing to spark strong movements. It seems that the market exhausted its momentum reacting to the U.S. elections, leaving little energy for other events. Consequently, the pair corrected toward the 1.0804 level but failed to break through it. The downtrend remains intact. Formally, the pair has corrected upward enough to continue its medium-term decline.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remarked yesterday that the presidential election results would not impact the Fed's policy. He also stated that he had no intention of stepping down prematurely. Regarding the year's final meeting, he suggested that the Fed might pause its monetary easing, depending on incoming data. We evaluate the outcome of the Fed meeting as "moderately hawkish."
The best trading signal on Thursday occurred early in the morning in the 5-minute time frame. The price broke through the 1.0726–1.0733 zone and climbed toward the 1.0797–1.0803 zone throughout the day. The remaining signals were generated during the U.S. session, just hours before the Fed announcement. Therefore, we believe these signals were not worth trading.
In the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair may start correcting again after a month of declines, as Wednesday's drop lacked clear justification. However, we believe the correction is unlikely to be strong, so consistent euro-supportive news would be needed. Even then, such news may not always aid the euro, as the market now leans toward buying the dollar.
The 1.0804 level is pivotal for Friday. If the euro's correction is deemed sufficient, a decline may resume from this level, targeting 1.0726 and 1.0678.
In the 5-minute time frame, we should consider the levels of 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1140. For Friday, no significant events are scheduled in the Eurozone, while in the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. While this report is notable, it is unlikely to trigger a strong market reaction. Today's market movement should reveal whether it is ready to resume the downtrend or if a correction will continue for a few more weeks.
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
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