18.11.202413:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Today, on the first day of the week, gold is attempting to gain positive momentum, breaking a six-day losing streak, but remains below $2600.

Expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies could lead to rising inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates further, have kept U.S. Treasury yields elevated. At the same time, optimistic market sentiment continues to cap gains in the precious metal.

The risk of escalating geopolitical tensions provides limited support for gold as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure, hovering just below its yearly peak, reached last Thursday.

The recent sharp pullback from the all-time high has stalled near the 100-day simple moving average, which now acts as a key support level. A decisive break below this level could trigger renewed bearish momentum, paving the way for additional losses. A further decline may push gold to the psychological level of $2500.

On the other hand, a move above the psychological resistance level at $2600 will face strong resistance near $2621. Renewed buying could lead to a rally toward the $2652 level, where the 50-day SMA currently resides, and further toward $2670. A breakout beyond $2670 could shift sentiment in favor of the bulls, enabling gold to test $2700.

However, the lack of strong buying signals calls for caution before considering a recovery from the $2536 level or last week's two-month low.