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The test of the 1.0497 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the 1.0530 area, allowing a profit of about 30 pips to be secured. I didn't get any other entry points afterward.
The euro attempted to return to growth yesterday following news of Scott Bessent's appointment as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. However, under increasing protectionist measures and instability in global markets, pressure on risk assets quickly returned—especially after today's news about the tariffs Trump plans to impose on China, Canada, and Mexico. This also creates uncertainty for European exporters, who are likely to be impacted once the focus shifts to them. This raises concerns among investors, who favor the dollar as a more stable currency amid global turmoil. Furthermore, the European Central Bank's decision to lower interest rates points to the need for economic stimulus in the region, which also weighs negatively on the euro exchange rate.
There is no fundamental data today, meaning euro buyers might have an opportunity to push the pair higher. However, such prospects seem rather unpromising. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios Nos. 1 and 2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price level of 1.0497 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0532. At 1.0532, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Counting on euro growth today is feasible only within the framework of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price level of 1.0473 is tested twice consecutively, provided that the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0497 and 1.0532.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0473 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0435 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment, but it's better to sell from as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price level of 1.0497 is tested twice consecutively, provided that the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0473 and 1.0435.
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