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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0542 as a key point for trading decisions. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to review what occurred. An upward movement followed by a false breakout around 1.0542 presented a favorable selling opportunity, leading to a 30-point drop in the pair. For the second half of the day, the technical outlook has been slightly adjusted.
The lack of Eurozone statistics once again supported slight growth in the euro. However, the primary focus has shifted to US data. Key figures, including initial jobless claims, third-quarter GDP changes, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, will drive the pair's direction in the afternoon. The US GDP figure for the third quarter is expected to remain unrevised, but core PCE index data may surpass economists' expectations. If this happens, the euro could face additional weakening, while the US dollar strengthens, consistent with the Federal Reserve's recent concerns about inflation.
If the pair comes under renewed pressure due to this data, I would act around the 1.0493 support level, which previously served as resistance. A false breakout at this level would offer an opportunity to build long positions, aiming for a correction back to 1.0542—a level the pair has struggled to surpass. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a favorable buying opportunity, with an initial target of 1.0575 and an ultimate target at the 1.0607 high, where I plan to take profits.
If EUR/USD declines further and no activity occurs around 1.0493 in the second half of the day, the euro may face even greater pressure. In this case, I would consider buying only after a false breakout near the 1.0441 support level. Immediate long positions could also be opened on a rebound from 1.0383, targeting a 30-35 point intraday upward correction.
If the pair rises again, protecting the 1.0542 resistance level will be the primary task for sellers in the second half of the day. A false breakout at this level, coupled with strong US economic data, would provide a selling opportunity, targeting the 1.0493 support level. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, would present another selling opportunity, potentially driving the pair toward the 1.0441 low. A break below this level would negate the current upward correction.
The final target would be the 1.0383 zone, where I plan to take profits. If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and bears fail to defend 1.0542—a level that has been tested twice in the last 24 hours—I will delay selling until the next resistance at 1.0575. I would sell at this level only after a failed consolidation. Immediate short positions could be considered following a rebound from 1.0607, targeting a 30-35 point intraday downward correction.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The COT report for November 19 showed a significant increase in short positions and a reduction in long positions. During Donald Trump's presidency, recent news of tariffs targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries, along with the European Central Bank's continued need to lower interest rates, has weakened the euro against the US dollar.
The report highlights that demand for the euro remains low, even at its current levels. This significant lack of buyers makes a near-term rise unlikely. According to the COT data, non-commercial long positions decreased by 5,698 to 154,305, while non-commercial short positions increased by 29,422 to 196,862. As a result, the net difference between long and short positions decreased by 2,422.
Moving Averages:Trading slightly above the 30- and 50-day moving averages supports the pair's chances of a correction.
Bollinger Bands:In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.0450 will act as support.
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