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The movement of the pound sterling within the range of 1.2612–1.2708 since November 14 appears to be consolidation, with false breakouts on both sides on November 22 and 29. Following this logic, the price may now attempt a genuine breakout below the lower boundary of the range, targeting a retest of the 1.2510 support.
However, this plan faces resistance from the Marlin oscillator, which has turned upward from the neutral zero line on the daily chart. If this is not the start of a sustained upward movement, it is at least a sign of consolidation. As a result, the price may remain within the range for another 1–2 days until the release of U.S. employment data on Friday.
Today, the UK will release November PMI indexes. Business activity in the services sector is expected to decline from 52.0 to 50.0, while the composite PMI may weaken from 51.8 to 49.9. This could increase the likelihood of the price dropping below the range.
On the H4 chart, the price is struggling with the balance line support. The Marlin oscillator has twice turned downward from the zero line, increasing the likelihood of the price successfully breaking through the support.
Below the 1.2612 level, the price will encounter the MACD line at 1.2582. For a successful break of this level, the price might first consolidate below 1.2612.
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