10.12.202413:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

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Today, gold continues to exhibit strong demand sentiment. Geopolitical events worldwide, compounded by political turmoil in South Korea and France, are fueling demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, the resumption of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China for the first time in seven months provides further support for the precious metal.

Moreover, subdued U.S. Treasury yields, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, are keeping dollar bulls defensive, further strengthening gold prices. Paired with concerns over the tariff plans of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair appears to be upward. However, expectations of a less dovish Fed policy in the future could limit price growth.

Yesterday's breakout and close above the $2,650 level can be seen as a new trigger for bulls. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has just started gaining positive momentum, supporting the outlook for further price increases. Consequently, a move back to the psychological $2,700 level, with further gains toward the supply zone at $2,720–$2,722, appears plausible.

On the other hand, the breakout point at $2,650, which aligns with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, now acts as immediate and strong support. A decisive break below this level would expose the next support zone around $2,620–$2,621, before testing the psychological $2,600 level.

Further declines below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could pave the way for deeper losses, dragging the XAU/USD pair toward the November low near $2,536.

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