27.12.202414:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the EUR/USD pair is fluctuating slightly above the level of 1.0400, with limited trading volume, struggling to find direction as the year ends. The overall outlook for the euro remains bearish, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue cutting interest rates in the first half of 2025.

In 2024, the ECB reduced its deposit facility rate by 100 basis points, and another 100 basis point cut is expected in 2025. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in the progress of the disinflationary trend but emphasized the need for policymakers to remain vigilant regarding inflation in the services sector.

On the U.S. side, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's strength against six major currencies, remains within a narrow range above the key support level of 108.00.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.61%, making interest-bearing assets an attractive choice for investors due to their higher opportunity costs. U.S. bond yields remain stable amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement fewer rate cuts in 2025.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate within a narrow range established earlier this week. The pair's outlook remains bearish, as daily chart oscillators are in negative territory and far from oversold conditions. However, intraday fluctuations toward the upside are possible.

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