02.01.202513:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank's 2% inflation target is already within reach.

Lagarde stated that after significant progress in reducing inflation during 2024, 2025 will be the year when the ECB achieves its goal as planned. This is because the ECB will continue its efforts to ensure the sustainable stabilization of inflation at its medium-term target of 2%.

Consumer price growth in the Eurozone slowed over the past year, declining below the ECB's target in September. However, it increased again in the final months of 2024, with Lagarde warning that inflation will likely fluctuate around its current level in the near future.

Nonetheless, this slowdown has allowed policymakers to cut interest rates by four-quarter points. Economists predict another four rate cuts by June 2025.

This contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy regarding interest rates. The Fed is expected to reduce rates only twice this year.

As a result, at the start of the year, the euro already appears weak against the dollar based on these expectations.

From a technical perspective, daily chart oscillators are in negative territory and far from the oversold zone. Therefore, the path of least resistance for the pair in the near term is downward.