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The euro is facing significant challenges against the US dollar as 2025 begins. Buyers may attempt to recover from yesterday's drop with today's initial movement, so the overall direction is still uncertain.
Today's data from the eurozone will be key. Unemployment in Germany remains a critical economic theme, and fresh data will reveal labor market dynamics. Although the unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly, this doesn't necessarily indicate stable economic growth. It's important to consider that many factors, including global economic trends and internal challenges, could negatively affect jobs in the future.
The speech by Philip Lane, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, is expected to play a significant role in shaping the pair's direction. His comments could provide valuable insights into the ECB's monetary policy and future decisions. Lane, a prominent economist with extensive knowledge of macroeconomic trends, often emphasizes the importance of inflation and economic growth in his analyses. His assessment of the current economic situation may help market participants understand how the ECB plans to address inflation risks and ensure financial stability. Many anticipate that his speech will evaluate how recent economic data impacts the central bank's strategy.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at the price level of 1.0289 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.0320. At 1.0320, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Significant growth in the euro during the first half of the day is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0268 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposing levels of 1.0289 and 1.0320 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0268 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0234, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 pips upward from that level. Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0289 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.0268 and 1.0234 can be expected.
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