CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.02% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
empty
You are about to leave
www.instaforex.eu >
a website operated by
INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Open Account

30.01.202513:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 30, 2025

This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here.

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD attempted to decline towards the 1.2363–1.2370 support zone on Wednesday but failed to sustain the move. Another attempt to test this level may follow today. Bulls still maintain some control, but they were unable to secure a breakout above the 1.2488–1.2508 resistance zone either. The upcoming Bank of England meeting next week remains a key factor for the pound, and until then, bulls must hold their ground within the upward channel.

Exchange Rates 30.01.2025 analysis

The wave structure is clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave has yet to reach the last peak. This suggests that the bearish trend remains intact. To reverse this trend, GBP/USD must rise to at least 1.2569 and secure a confident close above it. While this scenario is possible, discrepancies between the euro and the pound's wave structures indicate that one of them may be incorrectly formed.

Wednesday's market focus was not on the FOMC rate decision, as it was widely anticipated that the Fed would keep rates unchanged. Instead, all attention was on Jerome Powell's remarks. Powell reiterated that the U.S. economy remains strong and the labor market is balanced. The Fed is firmly committed to achieving its 2% inflation target, but rising CPI in recent months has prompted a more cautious stance. He emphasized that if the labor market shows signs of cooling, the Fed would be prepared to cut rates—but at present, such action is not necessary.

Additionally, Powell stated that Donald Trump will not influence the Fed's monetary policy, as he lacks the authority to do so. He also expressed concerns about potential U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures, though it is too early to assess their impact. Given these statements, bears may have a stronger case for renewed selling pressure in the coming days.

Exchange Rates 30.01.2025 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD remains within a downward trend channel. A rejection from the upper boundary of this channel could lead to a bearish reversal, targeting 1.2299 (100.0% Fibonacci level). However, if the pair breaks above this downward channel, it could force bears out of the market completely.

A bullish divergence has emerged on the CCI indicator, but bulls are yet to capitalize on this signal.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Exchange Rates 30.01.2025 analysis

The latest COT report shows that speculative sentiment has become increasingly bearish. Non-commercial traders reduced their long positions by 4,861, while short positions increased by 3,834. Over the past several months, bulls have completely lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions is now 75,000 vs. 84,000 in favor of bears.

From my perspective, GBP/USD still has downward potential, with the COT report confirming the strengthening of bearish positions almost every week. Over the past three months, long positions have declined from 161,000 to 75,000, while short positions have risen from 67,000 to 84,000.

I believe institutional players will continue unwinding long positions or increasing shorts, as most bullish factors for GBP have already been priced in. While technical analysis currently suggests a possible rebound, corrections remain likely.

Key Economic Data for the U.S. and UK

  • U.S. Q4 GDP Data (13:30 UTC)
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)

Thursday's economic calendar is relatively light, meaning the impact of fundamental events on market sentiment may be moderate.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

  • Selling opportunities remain valid if the pair breaks below the upward trend channel on the hourly chart.
  • Short positions from the 1.2488–1.2508 resistance zone targeting 1.2363–1.2370 remain relevant.
  • Long positions should be considered if GBP/USD rebounds from the 1.2363–1.2370 support zone, with an upside target at 1.2488–1.2508.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.




CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.02% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You are now leaving www.instaforex.eu, a website operated by INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback

Turn "Do Not Track" off

🍪 We use cookies

We may place cookies for analysis of our visitor data, to improve our website and measure advertising performance. Overall this data is used to provide a better website experience. More information

 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of Instant Trading EU Ltd including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.