31.01.202513:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Yesterday, gold prices reached a new historical high, and today they remain close to that level. Investors are concerned about the potential economic consequences of President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which—along with geopolitical tensions—continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Expectations that Trump's protectionist policies could drive higher inflation are also increasing interest in hedging through precious metals.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's first pause since the start of its easing cycle in September, coupled with a relatively hawkish stance, has led to a slight rebound in U.S. Treasury yields. This provides support for the U.S. dollar, limiting further upward potential for gold prices. Traders should exercise caution and wait for the release of the U.S. PCE Price Index before making new decisions on XAU/USD.

Technical Outlook

A sustained rally and a breakout above the key $2,800 level could serve as a bullish trigger. However, the daily RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting that it may be prudent to wait for a short-term consolidation or a moderate pullback before entering new long positions.

In case of a correction, support is expected in the $2,773–$2,772 zone, with additional support at $2,757–$2,756. A break below this area could lead to a deeper decline, potentially towards $2,740 and key structural support at $2,725–$2,720. A decisive drop below this range could set the stage for a more significant downside move in the near term.