10.02.202508:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: BTC/USD Analysis – February 10th

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart appears clear. Following a prolonged and complex corrective structure (a-b-c-d-e) that lasted from March 14 to August 5, a new impulse wave began forming. This impulse wave has already developed into a five-wave pattern. Based on the size of the first wave, the fifth wave may end up being shortened. Thus, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 has taken a three-wave form, which supports the accuracy of the current wave count. The news cycle has been supporting Bitcoin's growth due to continued institutional investments, interest from governments, and pension funds. However, Donald Trump's policies could push investors out of the market, and no trend lasts indefinitely. The current structure of wave 2 in wave 5 raises doubts about whether it is truly wave 2 in 5. I am inclined to believe that the bullish trend is nearing completion.

Bitcoin Stuck in a Limited Range

Over the weekend, BTC/USD remained stagnant. This time, Donald Trump was inactive, taking a break from policy decisions, so Monday did not start with another market shock. Price movement amplitude in recent days has been low, which many traders may find frustrating. I see no strong catalyst for renewed Bitcoin demand. The trend that started on January 20 appears corrective, which also rules out the likelihood of a sharp decline. After a six-month bullish rally, the market might be taking a break for a few months.

On Friday, key U.S. labor market and unemployment data were released, but their impact on Bitcoin market sentiment was minimal.

The crypto community continues to receive various news updates, but most of these are speculative opinions rather than solid fundamentals. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin could become a political tool under Donald Trump and expect it to drop to $70,000. Others believe Bitcoin will rise indefinitely, with a short-term target of $250,000.

Since December 17, Bitcoin has been moving sideways. In the near future, prices may decline to $90,000, forming a five-wave corrective structure (a-b-c-d-e). Only a successful breakout below $89,000 would signal that the market is ready to establish a new bearish trend.

General Conclusions

BTC/USD uptrend is nearing completion. This may not be a popular opinion, but wave 5 could be shortened. If this assumption is correct, we could see a sharp drop or a complex correction. I do not recommend buying Bitcoin at this stage. In the near future, Bitcoin could fall below wave 4's low, confirming the transition to a bearish trend.

On a higher wave scale, Bitcoin has formed a five-wave bullish structure. A corrective bearish wave or a new bearish trend could begin soon.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and frequently change.
2. If you are uncertain about the market, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in price direction does not exist. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis should be combined with other analysis methods and trading strategies.