26.02.202512:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/GBP: Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Weakens the Euro Against the Pound

The EUR/GBP pair is experiencing losses after two days of growth, currently trading around 0.8300.

The decline followed the release of Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence survey, which dropped to -24.7 for March 2025, falling below the revised -22.6 from the previous period and missing market expectations of -21.4. This marks the lowest level since April 2024, underscoring the current challenges for Germany's new government, including political uncertainty, rising corporate bankruptcies, and increasing costs.

Traders should closely monitor comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials ahead of next week's meeting, where the fifth consecutive rate cut is expected.

According to a Reuters report, ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel stated that moderate economic growth should not automatically be seen as a sign of restrictive policy. She also highlighted a notable increase in the "natural" interest rate in the Eurozone over the past two years, suggesting that the inflationary process may undergo a long-term shift.

Other ECB policymakers, including Martins Kazaks and Joachim Nagel, have also voiced support for further rate cuts if inflation continues its decline towards the 2% target.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that in the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced plans for a significant increase in defense spending, raising it to 3% of the country's GDP over the next decade. This move comes amid growing security concerns, particularly regarding potential shifts in U.S. support under Donald Trump's leadership.

Starmer described the initiative as "the largest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War". Ahead of his upcoming visit to Washington this week, the UK Prime Minister confirmed that initial funding would come from cuts to foreign aid spending, without raising taxes or increasing borrowing.

Technical Outlook

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in negative territory, indicating that the path of least resistance for the EUR/GBP pair remains downward.