27.02.202512:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

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The AUD/JPY pair's rate is attempting to hold slightly above the 94.00 level, its lowest point since September 2024.

Investors are increasingly confident that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates, driven by rising inflation in Japan. This expectation overshadows recent comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who hinted at a possible increase in regular bond purchases, which in turn is pushing Japanese government bond yields higher.

Additionally, concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans continue to support the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency, exerting further pressure on AUD/JPY.

Trump has ordered an investigation into copper imports to determine whether tariffs should be imposed for national security reasons. This directive adds to the already implemented 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and threats of retaliatory measures against other countries.

Moreover, weaker domestic consumer inflation data from Australia has contributed to the relative underperformance of the Australian dollar, further weighing on AUD/JPY.

On Thursday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed optimism about inflation trends, but emphasized the need for sustainable progress in this area. He also highlighted that Australia's tight labor market remains a significant challenge for inflation control.

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), there is growing concern about the potential risks of a US-China trade war, triggered by Trump's tariff actions. China's response to these threats will be a crucial factor influencing the future performance of the Australian dollar.

Technical Outlook

The recent decline below the previous yearly low at 94.35 confirms the weakness of the Australian dollar.

If the cross falls and holds below 94.00, it would further validate that the path of least resistance remains downward. Additionally, oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, reinforcing a bearish bias.

Key Economic Events to Watch

For better trading opportunities, traders should closely monitor important economic reports from Japan on Friday, including:

Industrial Production Data
Retail Sales Figures
Tokyo Inflation Report

These reports could provide fresh momentum for the AUD/JPY pair's rate.

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